:Product: 1003RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Oct 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
03/0633Z from Region 2422 (S20W89). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on day one (04 Oct) and expected to be very low with a chance for
a C-class flares on days two and three (05 Oct, 06 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
461 km/s at 03/0500Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 03/0631Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 03/1314Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (04 Oct), unsettled
to active levels on day two (05 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (06 Oct). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (04 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
Class M    10/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     10/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Oct 097
Predicted   04 Oct-06 Oct 090/095/095
90 Day Mean        03 Oct 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct  009/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct  012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct  025/033-015/018-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/20
Minor Storm           25/10/05
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/20
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    65/35/25