:Product: 1004RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Oct 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
04/0241Z from old Region 2422 (S20, L=097). There are currently 1
numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (05 Oct, 06 Oct, 07 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 533 km/s at 04/1449Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 04/0144Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 04/0039Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (05 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (06 Oct, 07 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Oct 088
Predicted   05 Oct-07 Oct 085/085/085
90 Day Mean        04 Oct 104

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct  010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct  015/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct  010/012-009/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    35/25/25