:Product: 1007RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Oct 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08
Oct, 09 Oct, 10 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at active to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 845 km/s at 07/2033Z. Total IMF reached 22 nT at 07/1425Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -18 nT at 07/1339Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 639
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (08 Oct), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (09 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day
three (10 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Oct 081
Predicted   08 Oct-10 Oct 080/085/085
90 Day Mean        07 Oct 103

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct  011/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct  041/079
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct  030/048-014/018-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/40/25
Minor Storm           50/25/10
Major-severe storm    25/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/20
Minor Storm           15/30/30
Major-severe storm    80/60/35