:Product: 1008RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Oct 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (09
Oct, 10 Oct, 11 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at minor storm to major storm levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a
peak speed of 844 km/s at 08/0825Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 07/2100Z.
The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 07/2121Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 21590 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (09 Oct) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Oct 080
Predicted   09 Oct-11 Oct 080/080/085
90 Day Mean        08 Oct 102

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct  044/105
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct  038/061
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct  020/027-011/012-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/25/25
Minor Storm           25/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    60/35/35