:Product: 1009RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Oct 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (10
Oct, 11 Oct, 12 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 809 km/s at 09/0154Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/1830Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/1342Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 57093
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (10 Oct, 11 Oct) and
quiet to minor storm levels on day three (12 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Oct 081
Predicted   10 Oct-12 Oct 080/085/090
90 Day Mean        09 Oct 102

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct  041/048
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct  020/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct  011/012-010/012-013/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/40
Minor Storm           10/10/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/10
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    35/35/60