:Product: 1016RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Oct 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
15/2331Z from Region 2434 (S10E34). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate on
days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct, 19 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
470 km/s at 15/2303Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 15/2113Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 15/2228Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2472 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (17 Oct,
18 Oct, 19 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Oct 109
Predicted   17 Oct-19 Oct 115/120/120
90 Day Mean        16 Oct 101

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct  009/010-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/15