:Product: 1017RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Oct 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
17/2042Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate on
days one, two, and three (18 Oct, 19 Oct, 20 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
380 km/s at 16/2330Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 17/1106Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 17/1921Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10702 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (18 Oct, 19 Oct)
and quiet levels on day three (20 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Oct 117
Predicted   18 Oct-20 Oct 120/120/120
90 Day Mean        17 Oct 101

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct  008/008-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    15/15/10