:Product: 1018RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Oct 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
17/2335Z from Region 2437 (S19E74). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate on
days one, two, and three (19 Oct, 20 Oct, 21 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 490 km/s at 18/1804Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 18/0656Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 18/0758Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 770
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (19 Oct, 21 Oct)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (20 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Oct 120
Predicted   19 Oct-21 Oct 125/125/125
90 Day Mean        18 Oct 102

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct  020/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct  010/012-007/008-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/25
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor Storm           30/20/30
Major-severe storm    30/20/30