:Product: 1026RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Oct 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
26/1029Z from Region 2437 (S21W33). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Oct,
28 Oct, 29 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 562 km/s at
25/2248Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 25/2102Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 26/0152Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (27 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Oct 106
Predicted   27 Oct-29 Oct 105/105/100
90 Day Mean        26 Oct 104

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct  006/005-007/008-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/25
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           15/25/30
Major-severe storm    10/25/30