:Product: 1029RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Oct 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
29/0021Z from Region 2443 (N05E67). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Oct, 31 Oct,
01 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 360 km/s at
29/2025Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 29/2018Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/2037Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 23 pfu at 29/1000Z.
Protons greater than 100 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 2 pfu at 29/0610Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 188 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (30 Oct, 31 Oct) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (01 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Oct 113
Predicted   30 Oct-01 Nov 110/105/105
90 Day Mean        29 Oct 104

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov  010/012-011/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           30/35/30
Major-severe storm    35/35/30