:Product: 1105RSGA.txt :Issued: 2015 Nov 05 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2015 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 04/2253Z from Region 2448 (N06E72). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov, 08 Nov). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 626 km/s at 04/2101Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 04/2129Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 05/0859Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7904 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Nov), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (07 Nov) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (08 Nov). III. Event probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov Class M 25/25/25 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Nov 110 Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 110/115/115 90 Day Mean 05 Nov 105 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 031/032 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 007/008-015/025-020/025 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/40/40 Minor Storm 05/20/20 Major-severe storm 01/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/10/10 Minor Storm 25/30/25 Major-severe storm 25/60/50