:Product: 1111RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Nov 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Nov,
13 Nov, 14 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 805 km/s at 11/0609Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 11/0109Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 11/0012Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 59508
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (12 Nov), unsettled to
active levels on day two (13 Nov) and active to minor storm levels on
day three (14 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Nov 105
Predicted   12 Nov-14 Nov 105/105/110
90 Day Mean        11 Nov 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov  032/035
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov  021/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov  022/030-012/015-018/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/40
Minor Storm           25/10/20
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/10
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    60/40/55