:Product: 1119RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Nov 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Nov,
21 Nov, 22 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 538 km/s at 19/0019Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 18/2102Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 18/2102Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 298
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Nov) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (21 Nov, 22 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Nov 108
Predicted   20 Nov-22 Nov 108/108/110
90 Day Mean        19 Nov 106

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov  014/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov  011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov  008/010-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/20/20