:Product: 1202RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Dec 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
02/0446Z from Region 2458 (N11W66). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (03 Dec, 04 Dec)
and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on
day three (05 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
507 km/s at 01/2123Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 01/2248Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 02/1355Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1420 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (03 Dec, 05 Dec) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (04 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
Class M    05/05/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Dec 095
Predicted   03 Dec-05 Dec 100/100/095
90 Day Mean        02 Dec 106

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec  011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec  006/005-008/008-007/006

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/10
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           15/30/25
Major-severe storm    15/20/20