:Product: 1208RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Dec 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
08/1914Z from Region 2463 (S09E06). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (09 Dec, 10 Dec, 11 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
712 km/s at 07/2354Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 08/0028Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 08/0037Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8733 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Dec), active to minor
storm levels on day two (10 Dec) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (11 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Dec 111
Predicted   09 Dec-11 Dec 110/115/115
90 Day Mean        08 Dec 107

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec  016/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec  010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec  012/016-021/032-021/028

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/35
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    40/55/50