:Product: 1213RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Dec 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
13/1034Z from Region 2468 (S15E26). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Dec, 15 Dec,
16 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
578 km/s at 12/2234Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 8708 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Dec), quiet to active
levels on day two (15 Dec) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (16 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Dec 123
Predicted   14 Dec-16 Dec 125/130/130
90 Day Mean        13 Dec 108

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Dec  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec  007/008-013/018-018/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/35/40
Minor Storm           01/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/45/50