:Product: 1222RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Dec 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
22/0334Z from Region 2473 (S23E62). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (23 Dec, 24 Dec, 25 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
505 km/s at 22/0513Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 21/2129Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 22/0908Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1727 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (23 Dec), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (24 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (25 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Dec 130
Predicted   23 Dec-25 Dec 130/130/125
90 Day Mean        22 Dec 109

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec  022/037
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec  009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec  006/006-008/010-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/30/25