:Product: 1230RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Dec 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
30/1905Z from Region 2473 (S21W47). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Dec, 01 Jan,
02 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 398 km/s at
30/0038Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 30/1819Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/2106Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1656 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (31 Dec), unsettled
to minor storm levels on day two (01 Jan) and unsettled to active levels
on day three (02 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one, two, and three (31 Dec, 01 Jan, 02 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
Class M    40/30/25
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Dec 102
Predicted   31 Dec-02 Jan 100/105/105
90 Day Mean        30 Dec 109

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec  008/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan  028/046-020/024-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/45/40
Minor Storm           35/25/20
Major-severe storm    50/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                01/05/10
Minor Storm           10/25/25
Major-severe storm    90/65/60