:Product: 0102RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jan 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 2 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
02/0011Z from Region 2473 (S21W89). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (03 Jan) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class
flares on days two and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
511 km/s at 02/1313Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 02/0132Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 02/0102Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 21 pfu at
02/0450Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4113 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (03 Jan), quiet to
active levels on day two (04 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (05 Jan). Protons greater than 10 Mev are expected to cross
threshold on day one (03 Jan) and have a chance of crossing threshold on
day two (04 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
Class M    40/05/05
Class X    10/01/01
Proton     90/30/01
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Jan 100
Predicted   03 Jan-05 Jan 100/100/100
90 Day Mean        02 Jan 109

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan  017/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan  022/035-011/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/15
Minor Storm           35/10/05
Major-severe storm    20/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    75/40/25