:Product: 0104RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jan 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 4 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Jan, 06
Jan, 07 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
482 km/s at 04/0706Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 04/1047Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 04/0518Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7407 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Jan), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (06 Jan) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (07 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jan 095
Predicted   05 Jan-07 Jan 095/095/095
90 Day Mean        04 Jan 109

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan  008/008-013/020-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/40/40
Minor Storm           05/25/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    25/60/60