:Product: 0105RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jan 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 5 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (06
Jan, 07 Jan, 08 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
507 km/s at 05/1612Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 05/1630Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 05/1317Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6152 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (06 Jan), unsettled to
active levels on day two (07 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day
three (08 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jan 095
Predicted   06 Jan-08 Jan 095/095/100
90 Day Mean        05 Jan 109

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan  004/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan  013/020-015/020-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor Storm           25/20/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    60/60/40