:Product: 0108RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jan 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 8 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one and two (09 Jan, 10 Jan) and expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (11 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
611 km/s at 08/0140Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 08/1355Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 08/1014Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5724 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (09 Jan,
10 Jan, 11 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
Class M    10/10/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Jan 109
Predicted   09 Jan-11 Jan 108/105/100
90 Day Mean        08 Jan 110

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan  011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan  007/008-008/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/20