:Product: 0109RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jan 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 9 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Jan,
11 Jan, 12 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 539 km/s at
08/2332Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/2011Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 09/0556Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3899 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (10 Jan, 11 Jan) and quiet to
minor storm levels on day three (12 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jan 107
Predicted   10 Jan-12 Jan 105/100/100
90 Day Mean        09 Jan 110

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan  005/005-005/005-013/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/35
Minor Storm           05/05/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/55