:Product: 0111RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jan 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 11 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Jan,
13 Jan, 14 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
655 km/s at 11/1843Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 11/1855Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 11/1809Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2146 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (12 Jan), quiet to
active levels on day two (13 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (14 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jan 108
Predicted   12 Jan-14 Jan 108/105/100
90 Day Mean        11 Jan 111

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan  011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan  014/018-010/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/15
Minor Storm           20/20/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    55/50/25