:Product: 0112RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jan 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 12 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Jan,
14 Jan, 15 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
696 km/s at 12/0551Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 11/2107Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 11/2303Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 989 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Jan), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (14 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (15 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jan 106
Predicted   13 Jan-15 Jan 105/100/105
90 Day Mean        12 Jan 111

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan  015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan  010/012-007/008-007/006

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/15/10
Minor Storm           20/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    50/25/20