:Product: 0123RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jan 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 23 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Jan,
25 Jan, 26 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
599 km/s at 23/0811Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 23/0631Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 23/0614Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4118 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (24 Jan, 25 Jan)
and quiet to active levels on day three (26 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jan 099
Predicted   24 Jan-26 Jan 100/100/100
90 Day Mean        23 Jan 109

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan  010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jan  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan  008/008-009/008-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/30
Minor Storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           15/25/30
Major-severe storm    15/20/40