:Product: 0129RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jan 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 29 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
29/0818Z from Region 2488 (N04W66). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (30
Jan, 31 Jan, 01 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 458 km/s at
28/2226Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 29/0151Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 29/1600Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (30 Jan, 31 Jan, 01
Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Jan 107
Predicted   30 Jan-01 Feb 108/105/100
90 Day Mean        29 Jan 109

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb  006/006-006/006-005/006

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    15/15/20