:Product: 0130RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jan 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 30 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Jan,
01 Feb, 02 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 310 km/s at
30/0031Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 30/1602Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 30/0823Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (31 Jan, 01 Feb) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (02 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Jan 105
Predicted   31 Jan-02 Feb 105/100/100
90 Day Mean        30 Jan 109

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb  006/005-006/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/25
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    15/20/35