:Product: 0202RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Feb 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 33 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
02/1452Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Feb,
04 Feb, 05 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 363 km/s at
02/2056Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 02/1611Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -8 nT at 02/1518Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Feb), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (04 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (05 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Feb 102
Predicted   03 Feb-05 Feb 105/110/110
90 Day Mean        02 Feb 108

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb  011/015-008/010-007/006

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/10
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    40/25/15