:Product: 0204RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Feb 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 35 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
04/1822Z from Region 2494 (S12E09). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05
Feb, 06 Feb, 07 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
514 km/s at 04/1610Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 04/1604Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 04/1015Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (05 Feb, 07
Feb) and quiet levels on day two (06 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Feb 123
Predicted   05 Feb-07 Feb 125/125/120
90 Day Mean        04 Feb 108

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb  010/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb  007/006-005/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/15
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor Storm           25/15/25
Major-severe storm    20/10/20