:Product: 0209RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Feb 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 40 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
09/0601Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one and two (10 Feb, 11 Feb) and expected to be very low with a chance
for a C-class flares on day three (12 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
461 km/s at 09/1239Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 09/0900Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 09/0900Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 149 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (10 Feb, 11 Feb)
and quiet to active levels on day three (12 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
Class M    05/05/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Feb 117
Predicted   10 Feb-12 Feb 115/115/115
90 Day Mean        09 Feb 109

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb  011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb  008/008-008/010-012/016

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/25
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/25/35