:Product: 0213RSGA.txt :Issued: 2016 Feb 13 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 44 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2016 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 13/1524Z from Region 2497 (N12W35). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Feb, 15 Feb, 16 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 448 km/s at 13/1859Z. Total IMF reached 20 nT at 12/2239Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 13/0508Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (14 Feb, 15 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (16 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (14 Feb, 15 Feb, 16 Feb). III. Event probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb Class M 35/35/35 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 15/15/15 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Feb 110 Predicted 14 Feb-16 Feb 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 13 Feb 109 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb 011/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 011/012-019/027-011/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/40/25 Minor Storm 15/20/05 Major-severe storm 01/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/20 Minor Storm 30/30/35 Major-severe storm 50/60/30