:Product: 0214RSGA.txt :Issued: 2016 Feb 14 2225 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 45 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2016 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 14/1926Z from Region 2497 (N12W48). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Feb, 16 Feb, 17 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 456 km/s at 14/0422Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 14/0818Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/0641Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and three (15 Feb, 17 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day two (16 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (15 Feb, 16 Feb, 17 Feb). III. Event probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb Class M 35/35/35 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 15/15/15 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Feb 108 Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 109/109/105 90 Day Mean 14 Feb 109 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 011/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 019/027-011/012-014/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/25/40 Minor Storm 20/05/15 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/20/10 Minor Storm 30/35/30 Major-severe storm 60/30/50