:Product: 0221RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Feb 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 52 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Feb,
23 Feb, 24 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 755 km/s at
21/0712Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 21/1932Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 21/0321Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 21836 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (22 Feb, 23 Feb) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (24 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Feb 097
Predicted   22 Feb-24 Feb 100/105/110
90 Day Mean        21 Feb 108

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb  006/005-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    15/15/25