:Product: 0227RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Feb 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 58 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
27/0555Z from Region 2506 (S06E08). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Feb,
29 Feb, 01 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 432 km/s at 27/0455Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
27/0515Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
27/0856Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 583 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (28 Feb, 29 Feb) and quiet to
active levels on day three (01 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Feb-01 Mar
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Feb 090
Predicted   28 Feb-01 Mar 090/090/100
90 Day Mean        27 Feb 107

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-01 Mar  006/005-006/005-011/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb-01 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/30
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/35
Major-severe storm    15/15/40