:Product: 0321RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Mar 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 81 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Mar,
23 Mar, 24 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 456 km/s at 21/0717Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
21/0152Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
20/2306Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 696 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (22 Mar, 23 Mar)
and quiet levels on day three (24 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Mar 089
Predicted   22 Mar-24 Mar 085/085/085
90 Day Mean        21 Mar 102

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar  006/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Mar  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar  007/008-007/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/20
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    25/35/25