:Product: 0330RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Mar 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 90 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (31
Mar, 01 Apr, 02 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 592 km/s at 30/0222Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 29/2316Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
30/1133Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 183 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (31 Mar), quiet to active
levels on day two (01 Apr) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (02 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Mar 084
Predicted   31 Mar-02 Apr 085/085/085
90 Day Mean        30 Mar 100

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar  008/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Mar  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr  009/008-008/010-020/026

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/30
Minor Storm           05/15/30
Major-severe storm    01/05/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    25/45/65