:Product: 0403RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Apr 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 94 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04
Apr, 05 Apr, 06 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 02/2131Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 03/2030Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 02/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 397 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (04 Apr, 06
Apr) and quiet to active levels on day two (05 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Apr 082
Predicted   04 Apr-06 Apr 082/078/078
90 Day Mean        03 Apr 099

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr  015/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Apr  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr  008/008-013/015-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/25
Minor Storm           05/20/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/55/35