:Product: 0504RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 May 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
04/1351Z from Region 2535 (N07W68). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (05 May) and likely to be
low on days two and three (06 May, 07 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 522 km/s at 03/2202Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
04/0146Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
03/2153Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5376 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (05 May, 06 May) and quiet to
active levels on day three (07 May).

III.  Event probabilities 05 May-07 May
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 May 090
Predicted   05 May-07 May 095/100/100
90 Day Mean        04 May 095

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 May  011/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May  006/005-006/005-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May-07 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/30
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/30
Major-severe storm    10/10/35