:Product: 0512RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 May 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 May,
14 May, 15 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 456 km/s at 11/2212Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
12/2003Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
11/2203Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 42356 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (13 May, 14 May) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (15 May).

III.  Event probabilities 13 May-15 May
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 May 092
Predicted   13 May-15 May 095/097/100
90 Day Mean        12 May 093

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May  005/005-004/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/25
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    05/10/30