:Product: 0514RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 May 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
14/1134Z from Region 2543 (S05W69). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 May,
16 May, 17 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 392 km/s at 14/0319Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 14/1852Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
14/1852Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2578 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 May), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (16 May) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (17 May).

III.  Event probabilities 15 May-17 May
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 May 101
Predicted   15 May-17 May 105/100/095
90 Day Mean        14 May 093

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May  009/008-017/022-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/40/40
Minor Storm           05/25/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/60/55