:Product: 0515RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 May 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
15/0409Z from Region 2543 (S05W80). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 May,
17 May, 18 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 515 km/s at 15/1714Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 14/2149Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at
14/2132Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1152 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 May), quiet to
active levels on day two (17 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (18 May). Protons are likely to cross threshold on day one (16
May), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (17 May) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (18 May).

III.  Event probabilities 16 May-18 May
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     60/30/10
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 May 108
Predicted   16 May-18 May 105/100/100
90 Day Mean        15 May 093

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May  011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May  017/023-011/012-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May-18 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/20
Minor Storm           25/20/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    60/55/25