:Product: 0518RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 May 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 May,
20 May, 21 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 566 km/s at 17/2109Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 18/1054Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
18/1014Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 987 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (19 May, 21 May)
and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (20 May).

III.  Event probabilities 19 May-21 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 May 102
Predicted   19 May-21 May 103/105/105
90 Day Mean        18 May 093

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 May  014/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 May  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May  014/016-017/022-011/016

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 May-21 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           25/30/15
Major-severe storm    05/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    55/65/50