:Product: 0526RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 May 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 26 May 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
26/1336Z from Region 2548 (N13W36). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one and two (27 May, 28 May) and expected to be very low with a chance
for a C-class flares on day three (29 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 381 km/s at 26/2045Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
25/2131Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
26/1505Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 579 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (27 May, 29 May)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (28 May).

III.  Event probabilities 27 May-29 May
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 May 092
Predicted   27 May-29 May 090/085/090
90 Day Mean        26 May 093

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 May  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 May  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 May-29 May  009/012-007/008-011/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 May-29 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/25
Minor Storm           10/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    35/20/35