:Product: 0528RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 May 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 149 Issued at 2200Z on 28 May 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 May,
30 May, 31 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 592 km/s at 28/0656Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 27/2124Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
27/2349Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 115 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (29 May, 31 May)
and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (30 May).

III.  Event probabilities 29 May-31 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 May 088
Predicted   29 May-31 May 090/090/085
90 Day Mean        28 May 093

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 May  012/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 May  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 May-31 May  013/015-016/020-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 May-31 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/40/25
Minor Storm           10/20/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    35/55/35