:Product: 0605RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jun 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (06
Jun, 07 Jun, 08 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 625 km/s at 05/2004Z. Total IMF
reached 21 nT at 05/1418Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-15 nT at 05/1241Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 917 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (06 Jun), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (07 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (08
Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jun 079
Predicted   06 Jun-08 Jun 078/078/082
90 Day Mean        05 Jun 092

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun  018/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun  016/020-008/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/10
Minor Storm           20/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/20/15
Minor Storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    50/25/15