:Product: 0606RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jun 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 158 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jun 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (07
Jun, 08 Jun, 09 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 694 km/s at 06/0322Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 06/0007Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 06/0006Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 801 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Jun) and quiet levels
on days two and three (08 Jun, 09 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jun 079
Predicted   07 Jun-09 Jun 080/080/080
90 Day Mean        06 Jun 092

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jun  023/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jun  021/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun  009/010-005/006-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    25/15/10