:Product: 0613RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jun 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
13/0552Z from Region 2552 (N14, L=002). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Jun,
15 Jun, 16 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 624 km/s at 13/0532Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 12/2225Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
12/2208Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 313 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Jun) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (15 Jun, 16 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jun 091
Predicted   14 Jun-16 Jun 092/094/090
90 Day Mean        13 Jun 091

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun  006/006-010/012-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/25
Minor Storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/40/35