:Product: 0616RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jun 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (17
Jun, 18 Jun, 19 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 646 km/s at 16/0116Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
15/2118Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
16/1819Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 226 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Jun) and quiet levels
on days two and three (18 Jun, 19 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jun 088
Predicted   17 Jun-19 Jun 088/088/088
90 Day Mean        16 Jun 091

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun  015/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jun  013/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/15/10