:Product: 0702RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jul 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jul 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (03 Jul, 04 Jul, 05 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 405 km/s at 02/2051Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at
02/2058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
02/1944Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 287 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (03 Jul), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (04 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (05
Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Jul 071
Predicted   03 Jul-05 Jul 072/072/074
90 Day Mean        02 Jul 089

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jul  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jul  008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul  020/025-007/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/15/05
Minor Storm           20/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/20/15
Minor Storm           30/25/15
Major-severe storm    55/20/05